PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:After impressive Georgia win, there's no denying Lane Kiffin is a legit ball coach

There important results in Week 11 of the college football season that will shake conference and PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Centerplayoff races. Matt Hayes analyzes four hot topics from Saturday's games.

1. First Down: Lane Kiffin, the ball coach

Don’t take the bait. Don’t focus on the fall of Georgia and the undoing of the best program in college football ― and ignore the rise of Lane Kiffin.

Because there’s no denying it now: Kiffin is a legit ball coach.

“We planned for this game all year,” Kiffin said while Ole Miss fans stormed the field moments after a stunning 28-10 whipping of Georgia.

It’s not that Ole Miss became the first team in 53 games not named Alabama to beat Georgia. It’s not that the win left the Rebels with a clear road to the College Football Playoff.

It’s that Kiffin, long the college football coaching outcast because of how his career began – not how it has developed – got his first mega win in the big, bad SEC. Forget about the top-five win against Oregon in 2011 as the USC coach, this is different.

This is a victory that underscores the five-year buildout that until Saturday had been equal parts the school record for single season wins (11 in 2023), and a handful of ugly losses to SEC heavyweights Alabama, LSU and Georgia. In fact, it was the loss to Georgia last season – a humiliating 35-point defeat - that paved the way for this season of change.

That 52-17 loss to the Dawgs was the worst of Kiffin's career, and – fair or not –further solidified him as the coach who couldn't win big games. Never mind that he was building at Ole Miss, a perennial underachiever in the meatgrinder conference.

You're judged on what you do in the SEC, not what you say or post on X. And Kiffin wasn't earning it.

So he pushed all-in this offseason, and the Georgia game was his now or never. He told the Ole Miss NIL collectives he needed cash to compete, and he got it.

He built the roster from the inside out through, focusing on the lines of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and adding key pieces through the transfer portal. The plan was simple: run the ball on offense, affect the quarterback on defense.

He convinced offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach and play caller Charlie Weis Jr., to stay in Oxford, instead of taking more money from Florida coach Billy Napier to run the Gators’ offense.

And here we are: the Rebels lead the nation in sacks (46), and are No. 2 in the nation in total offense. Ole Miss is two improbable fourth-down completions in late losses to Kentucky and LSU from an unbeaten season.

Ole Miss gave up 611 yards in last year’s 52-17 loss to Georgia, and gave up 245 Saturday. The Rebels didn’t get a sack in last year’s game, and got five this time around – and forced three turnovers.   

Now Ole Miss is two wins – at Florida and home against rival Mississippi State – from reaching the CFP as an at-large selection (watch how high the Rebels jump in this week's CFP poll), and could play in the SEC championship game with a little help.

There’s no denying it now: Kiffin is a legit ball coach.

UP AND DOWN: Georgia's loss leads Week 11 winners and losers

2. Second Down: Deion and the CFP

You know it, I know it. This thing is destined for Deion Sanders and the CFP: the biggest personality in the sport, and the new 12-team playoff.

A match made in television heaven.

We’ve seen everything in a wild Big 12 race, and now we’re primed (pun intended) for a remarkable one-season turnaround. It’s all setting up for Colorado coach Deion Sanders to lead the Buffs to the Big 12 championship game – and one game away from the playoff

Not just any spot – an automatic qualifier spot, which comes with a coveted first-round bye. That means more Prime, all the time.  

From losing eight of nine games to finish the 2023 season, to controlling its destiny in the Big 12 race, Colorado needs wins against Utah, at Kansas and against Oklahoma State – the Buffs will be favored in all three games -- to complete a remarkable turnaround.

BUFFS CHARGE:Colorado starts slow before rolling past Texas Tech

An improbable run from a team that couldn’t protect star quarterback Shedeur Sanders in September, and couldn’t get off the field defensively for the first six weeks of the season.

But after Saturday’s 41-27 win at Texas Tech, it’s clear the Buffs have figured it out. CU went into the toughest place to play in the Big 12, and forced three turnovers (and didn’t give up a turnover), and had six sacks.

The Buffs won despite rushing for only 60 yards, and committing 14 penalties for 106 yards. They won because they consistently made plays on offense when they needed it, and got stops (and got off the field) against a Texas Tech offense that last week rolled the best defense in the conference (Iowa State).

That can only mean one thing: more Prime, all the time.

3. Third Down: Kurtis Rourke, Heisman candidate

He doesn’t have the numbers of Cam Ward or Ashton Jeanty, or the efficiency of Dillon Gabriel, or the big-play game of Travis Hunter.

But if you’re looking for an impactful player in the thick of the CFP race, a player who has elevated a program from the depths of the Bowl Subdivision cellar to an unbeaten season, it’s time to take a long look at Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke.

A sixth-year senior transfer from Ohio, Rourke made big throws again Saturday, this time in a 20-15 win over Michigan to give the Hoosiers their first 10-win season in program history. History.

Rourke threw for 206 yards and two touchdowns, and now has a TD/INT ratio of 21/4 in nine games. But strong performances against Michigan, Michigan State and UCLA are one thing. Playing big at Ohio State in two weeks is the bar.

If Rourke has a big game and leads Indiana to an upset of the Buckeyes, watch how quickly momentum turns in his favor in the Heisman race. He’ll go from a fun novelty leading a team that really doesn’t have a signature win, to a Heisman front-runner with arguably the best win of any team in the CFP race.      

4. Fourth Down: Miami meltdown burns ACC

Look beyond another Miami loss to double-digit underdog Georgia Tech, and look directly at the ACC race to the CFP.

And how Miami’s 28-23 defeat Saturday all but ends the ACC’s chances of getting a second team in the 12-team playoff. Unless the remainder of November is full of upsets, it's likely only one ACC team is part of the field.

The conference is watered-down, the star power outside of the Hurricanes is limited and the resume for any potential playoff contender consists of wins against the worst Power Four conference in the game. The ACC’s best chance at getting more than its champion in the CFP was SMU winning out and beating undefeated Miami in the ACC championship game.

The easiest way to explain it: Miami’s best resume win will be the ACC championship game. So will SMU’s. So will Pitt’s, and Clemson’s.

See the trend?

“You can’t sugarcoat it,” Miami coach Mario Cristobal said in his postgame press conference. “We didn’t do a good enough job.”

And that has left the Canes (9-1 overall, 5-1 ACC) with no more CFP wiggle room. They’ll go from the projected ACC champion in last week’s CFP poll, to potentially falling behind two-loss SEC teams and outside the top 10 in this week’s poll.

Miami’s schedule is among the easiest in the Power Four, and SMU isn’t far behind – though the Mustangs’ schedule is slightly better with a three-point home loss to Big 12 leader Brigham Young. This is how quickly it can turn in the CFP race.

Miami has gone from the thrill-a-minute team with the Heisman Trophy favorite (Ward) leading second half comebacks, to the team giving up an average of 31.6 points in six ACC games -- with no room for error the rest of the season.

Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.