NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:2024 NFL draft first-round order: Bears, via Panthers, currently have No. 1 pick

Here is NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Centera look at the first-round order for the 2024 NFL draft after the events of the opening game of Week 10, with the Chicago Bears' win over the Carolina Panthers having a profound impact at the top.

The Bears own the Panthers' first-round pick as a result of a 2023 pre-draft trade that gave Carolina the No. 1 pick, which it used to select Alabama quarterback Bryce Young. That trade now has the Bears — by way of the Panthers' 1-8 record — at the top of the 2024 NFL draft after the results of "Thursday Night Football."

The draft order is determined by record, and uses strength of schedule as a tiebreaker (record and strength of schedule are official tiebreakers to determine the draft order). 

The final 14 first-round spots will be determined by playoff results. For now, those teams will be ordered based on playoff seed, if the season ended today.

The 2024 NFL draft is scheduled to be held in Detroit from April 25-27.

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NFL draft order

(as of Nov. 10; * denotes wild-card team and # denotes division leader)

1. Chicago Bears (from Panthers) — Carolina Panthers' record: 1-8 (strength of schedule: .532)
2. Arizona Cardinals — Record: 1-8 (.539)
3. New York Giants — Record: 2-7 (.506)
4. New England Patriots — Record: 2-7 (.595)
5. Chicago Bears — Record: 3-7 (.453)
6. Los Angeles Rams — Record: 3-6 (.547)
7. Green Bay Packers — Record: 3-5 (.465)
8. Denver Broncos — Record: 3-5 (.535)
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Record: 3-5 (.563)
10. Tennessee Titans — Record: 3-5 (.574)
11. Las Vegas Raiders — Record: 4-5 (.429)
12. Washington Commanders — Record: 4-5 (.444)
13. Atlanta Falcons — Record: 4-5 (.467)
14. Indianapolis Colts — Record: 4-5 (.526)
15. Arizona Cardinals (from Texans) — Houston Texans' record: 4-4 (.507)
16. New York Jets — Record: 4-4 (.522)
17. Los Angeles Chargers — Record: 4-4 (.529)
18. Buffalo Bills — Record: 5-4 (.468)
19. *Minnesota Vikings — Record: 5-4 (.487)
20. *Dallas Cowboys — Record: 5-3 (.420)
21. *Seattle Seahawks — Record: 5-3 (.435)
22. *Cincinnati Bengals — Record: 5-3 (.500)
23. *Houston Texans (from Browns) — Cleveland Browns' record: 5-3 (.522)
24. *Pittsburgh Steelers — Record: 5-3 (.552)
25. #New Orleans Saints — Record: 5-4 (.377)
26. #San Francisco 49ers — Record: 5-3 (.456)
27. #Miami Dolphins — Record: 6-3 (.430)
28. #Detroit Lions — Record: 6-2 (.493)
29. #Jacksonville Jaguars — Record: 6-2 (.543)
30. #Baltimore Ravens — Record: 7-2 (.514)
31. #Kansas City Chiefs — Record: 7-2 (.526)
32. #Philadelphia Eagles — Record: 8-1 (.462)

Teams without a first-round pick: Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns